The Opposition\u2019s Dilemma<\/strong> Nevertheless, opposition leader MK Lapid (Yesh Atid) is refusing to sit in a coalition with Arabs; and MK Benny Gantz (leader of the National Unity Party) has launched a campaign against \u201cextremists on both sides,\u201d which draws a comparison between a pyromaniac national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit), and Abbas, who consistently reiterates his commitment to forging a Jewish-Arab partnership. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee against Likud; the committee recently ordered that the party delete a doctored photo from its X account showing the former prime minister with leaders of the Arab parties when they made their declaration of unity.<\/p>\n Following, Not Leading<\/strong> Every morning they stick a finger out the window to check which way the wind is blowing. They look at the polls in order to ascertain whether they are allowed to broach the idea of a partnership with the Arab parties that day, instead of working to shape public opinion in a way that will facilitate their rise to power. Moreover, they are becoming captive to Netanyahu\u2019s moves. When he flirts with the idea of forming a coalition with Abbas\u2019 UAL, these leaders don\u2019t object. But when the right wing treats the Arab community like a punching bag in order to divert the public\u2019s attention from the debacle of October 7, some of them actually help intensify that distraction instead of fighting it.<\/p>\n What the Data Actually Shows<\/strong> The question posed by the Partnership Index survey was: \u201cDo you support or oppose involving an Arab party in the coalition?\u201d An analysis of the data based on respondents\u2019 self-described political worldview found that among those identifying as centrists, 41 percent support the co-option of an Arab party into a future coalition, 47 percent said they are against that and 12 percent said they don\u2019t know. An analysis of respondents supporting the so-called bloc of change revealed that 43 percent support bringing in an Arab party, 48 percent are against and 8 percent don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n These figures show that there is no clear preference one way or the other among centrist voters on this issue, but instead a feeling of openness vis-\u00e0-vis broader political and moral considerations. In addition, a majority of 58 percent who categorize themselves as centrists as well as 56 percent of those who stated that they would vote for an opposition party do not harbor unequivocal views on this question, but are only \u201csomewhat against\u201d (26 percent) or \u201csomewhat support\u201d (30 percent) bringing an Arab party into the government.<\/p>\n As for the idea of a coalition being supported by an Arab party \u201cfrom the outside,\u201d among those who declared they opposed including such a party in a coalition, more than a quarter (26 percent, constituting 15 percent of all centrist voters) would agree to having outside support from such a party; among right-wing voters who are against a coalition partnership, 12 percent responded that they would accept outside support.<\/p>\n The Power of Leadership<\/strong> Moreover, data collected by one of us (Noam Gidron) together with Prof. Lior Sheffer, from Tel Aviv University, shows that when leaders of the parties in the Bennett-Lapid government opted for cooperation with the UAL, many of their voters followed suit. Surveys conducted before and after the formation of that government examined how the Jewish public feels toward different parties on a scale of 0 to 10. After the formation of that government, voters for the diverse parties in the coalition expressed more positive feelings toward the UAL. This finding is valid not only for \u201cimmediate suspects\u201d such as Yesh Atid voters; it also holds for supporters of Yisrael Beiteinu, led by MK Avigdor Lieberman, which has a long history of slamming the country\u2019s Arab community.<\/p>\n These results reflect well-established findings in political science regarding “affective polarization.” Coalitions are not only the embodiment of an agreement to apportion rule; they also function as a strong, clear message to the general public as to which parties are considered to belong to \u201cour side.\u201d Studies show that cooperation in a coalition leads to more positive feelings among the voters. In other words, the actions of the parties influence the attitudes of their voters.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/strong>
\nIf so, why did we not hear jubilant cries from the leaders of the opposition parties after this announcement? The reason is that October 7, 2023, produced a new oxymoron in Israeli politics: The leaders of the \u201cgovernment of change\u201d (from June 2021 until December 2022, under rotating premiers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid) \u2013 who were only able to cobble together their ruling coalition thanks to a partnership with the United Arab List (UAL), led by Mansour Abbas \u2013 are now ruling out any possibility of cooperating with an Arab party. They are taking this position even though it\u2019s clear to everyone that cooperation between the two sides could significantly increase the prospects of replacing the present government.<\/p>\n
\nLet\u2019s return to those cries of jubilation (or, rather, their absence). Until October 6, there had been a spectacular, months-long public protest in the country against the government\u2019s regime coup. Masses took to the streets in the name of democracy, which was being trampled underfoot; after all, one must remember, equal political rights are a basic tenet of democracy. But since the war broke out in Gaza, some of our opposition leaders have stopped leading and are now being led in many areas \u2013 notably, when it comes to their attitude toward the Arab parties.<\/p>\n
\nThus, the opposition leaders\u2019 only excuse for taking this approach is that after October 7, their imagined base isn\u2019t capable of entertaining the idea of an Arab party in the coalition. However, the latest \u201cPartnership Index,\u201d based on an annual survey conducted by Givat Haviva \u2013 The Center for Shared Society, shows that the vaunted base takes a different view. The index is based on a survey conducted together with Midgam, a market research and public opinion firm, and its founder, Mano Geva, among 422 respondents who constitute a representative sample of the adult Jewish population, and 280 others who constitute a representative sample of the adult Arab population.<\/p>\n
\nIn other words, there is a sizable proportion of supporters of opposition parties who might support leaders intent on forging Jewish-Arab cooperation. And there is good reason to assume that this could happen \u2013 not least because it has already happened in the past, in the case of the successful cooperation with the UAL during the period of the Bennett-Lapid government.<\/p>\n
\nThe cardinal issue that will affect the coming election will thus hinge on the ability of the heads of the centrist parties to assume the role of leaders and not followers. They indeed have the ability to influence their voters and lead them toward the only path that could facilitate political change and renewal. This point is particularly important when it comes to the political representation of 20 percent of Israel\u2019s citizens. There is a good chance that the way to power for the opposition will entail cooperation with the Arab parties. They deserve a leadership .that knows how to lead.<\/p>\n